Tropical Storm Kirk is a typical example of how unpredictable these weather systems can be. Last Friday afternoon its cyclone formation chance was still low (10 per cent) for both 48 hours and five days, yet the first storm advisory on Kirk was issued Saturday morning.
However, by Monday the disturbance had been downgraded back to a depression and later that same day it was reported to no longer have a closed circulation so that only remnants were left. Lo and behold, these redeveloped into a storm again from early Wednesday morning, although – in fairness – meteorologists had warned the latter would be possible.
The point is that one can never be too sure. According to the latest forecast track, Kirk will pass closest to St. Maarten at about 194 miles to the South-Southwest Friday afternoon, well beyond the tropical force winds reaching outwards up to 115 miles from the centre.
But an unexpected shift in direction or fluctuation in strength can make quite a difference in terms of impact, so residents would do well to heed the advice of authorities to monitor Kirk’s progress and review hurricane preparations. Also keep in mind that the worst part is usually found on the North side of such systems.
What’s more, nature has been known to sometimes defy logic. Don’t be caught off guard and please play it safe.
