Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 12A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019

800 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...14.0N 61.2W

ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF ST. LUCIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

 WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Puerto Rico

* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

 A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Martinique

* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dominica

* Grenada and its dependencies

* Saba and St. Eustatius

* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque

* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

 Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of

Dorian.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by surface observations and Martinique radar data near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 61.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-

northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday.

 Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday:

Barbados...Additional rainfall up to 1 inch, storm total around 6 inches.

Windward Islands from Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches.

Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.

Puerto Rico and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods, especially where totals exceed 4 inches.

 WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Wednesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles today.

 SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours.  Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.