Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 25A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019

200 PM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...24.8N 70.3W

ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Northwestern Bahamas

 

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

 

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian.

 

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 70.3 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-northwest to westward motion should begin tonight and continue

into early next week.

On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeast and central Bahamas today and tomorrow, be near or over the northwest Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida peninsula late Monday.

 Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Dorian is anticipated to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane while it moves near the northwest Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week.

 Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

 The minimum central pressure recently estimated from an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 970 mb (28.64 inches).

 HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwest Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night or Sunday morning.

 

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwest Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

 

Northwest Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches.

Central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

 

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

 

SURF:  Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeast United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Please consult products from your local weather office.