Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 28A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019

800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

 

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...25.8N 73.0W

ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA

ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Andros Island

 

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

 

Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida later today.

 

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 73.0 West. Dorian is now moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower westward

motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeast and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwest Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

 

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (225 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While some fluctuations in intensity are possible, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

 

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 944 mb (27.88 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwest Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight.

 

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwest Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

 

Northwest Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches.

Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

 

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

 

SURF:  Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeast United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 

 

Please consult products from your local weather office.