NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


  1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure.

Limited development of this system is anticipated today or tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida during the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


  1. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This disturbance is accompanied by a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move westward toward unfavorable upper-level winds for tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


  1. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow development is possible over the weekend or early next week when the system is moving over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Avil