NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is decreasing this morning to the east of a small area of low pressure located more than 100 miles east-southeast of Barbados. Increasing upper-level winds are likely to prevent further development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwest at about 10 mph. This disturbance could produce increased shower activity and some gusty winds while moving across the Lesser Antilles over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
2. A strong tropical wave has emerged just off the coast of Africa this morning. Although ocean temperatures are still relatively cool over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and are only marginally conducive for development, a small tropical depression could form by early next week while this system moves westward to west-northwest at about 15 mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
