NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The Weather Prediction Center has issued the last Public Advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri, moving offshore of eastern Massachusetts.
A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles east-northeast of the Northeast Caribbean. Little development of this system is expected during the next day or two due while it moves northwest at about 15 mph over marginally conducive ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days from a tropical wave currently located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwest over the northwest Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Berg
