NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
- Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with the broad low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form later today or on Saturday if the system remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America should monitor the progress of this system while it moves generally northwestward, as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, over portions of southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
- A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
