NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure located over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea just off the coast of Venezuela continues to produce an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Windward Islands, northern South America, and adjacent waters. While land interaction with the northern coast of South America may hinder significant development during the next day or so, environmental conditions are expected to be mostly conducive for development while the system moves westward at about 15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two by the time it enters the south-central Caribbean Sea. Additional strengthening is anticipated while the system moves westward over the southwestern Caribbean Sea toward Central America late Friday through Sunday.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of Venezuela including Isla Margarita, the ABC Islands, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia during the next day or two. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Berg
