NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022
1. Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Surface pressures are falling in the region, and radar from Mexico indicates the system is becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression could form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. After that time, increasing upper-level winds are likely to hinder additional development while it meanders in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of formation, heavy rainfall is expected over portions of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Bucci
