NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 6 202
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A well-defined low pressure area located several hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with an area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has been attempting to redevelop closer to the center, and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today while the system drifts slowly over the central Atlantic. Thereafter, the system is forecast to turn northeastward and merge with a strong cold front by the middle part of this week. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is developing about 100 miles north of Puerto Rico and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northward or northwestward further into the southwestern Atlantic today and environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development. A subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form early this week while the system turns westward or west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of this week. Interests in those areas
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Papin
