ERBIL, Iraq--Iraqi Kurds are expected to vote for independence in a referendum on Monday that neighbouring countries and Western powers fear could break up the country and stir broader regional ethnic and sectarian conflict.
Kurdish flags - a red, white and green tricolor emblazoned with a golden sun - adorn cars and buildings across the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, and billboards announce: "The time is now - say 'yes' to a free Kurdistan!"
Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdish region since 2005, has resisted calls by the United Nations, the United States and Britain to delay the referendum. Neighbouring Turkey is holding army exercises on the Iraqi border to underline its concerns that the referendum could fuel separatism among its own Kurds.
Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said on live television on Friday the vote posed a threat to Turkey's national security and that Ankara would "do what is necessary" to protect itself. He did not elaborate.
But Hoshyar Zebari, a senior advisEr to Barzani, struck a defiant tone, telling Reuters: "This is the last five metres of the final sprint and we will be standing our ground."
Many Kurds see the vote, though non-binding, as a historic opportunity to achieve self-determination a century after Britain and France divided the Middle East under the Sykes-Picot agreement. That arrangement left 30 million Kurds scattered over Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq.
Zebari said delaying the vote for negotiations with Baghdad without also securing guarantees that it could then be held on a binding basis would amount to "political suicide” for the Kurdish leadership and the Kurdish dream of independence.
The referendum raises most risk of ethnic conflict in the oil city of Kirkuk, which lies outside the recognised boundaries of the Kurdish region and is claimed by Baghdad. Its population includes Arabs and Turkmen but it is dominated by Kurds.
Turkey has long claimed a special responsibility in protecting ethnic Turkmen. Some of Iraq's Turkmen are Shi'ite and affiliated to political parties close to Iran.
"We expect those who are against the referendum to cause trouble but we are determined not to engage in any kind of violence, we don’t want to give them any excuse to intervene or to question the validity of the vote," Zebari said.
Tensions between the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and Baghdad hinge on oil revenue the Kurds see as the mainstay of a future Kurdish state. The Kurds have long accused Baghdad of withholding budget payments to the region, while Baghdad has opposed oil deals made by the Kurds without its consent. A regional conflict could threaten oil supply from Kurdish and northern Iraqi fields to world markets, carried through a pipeline to Turkey.
