For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave is rapidly moving westward toward the Lesser
Antilles. Although satellite images show a large and well-
organized area of thunderstorms associated with the wave, there are
no signs of a surface circulation, and pressures are not falling
significantly at this time.
This system has the potential for some
slow development during the next day or two, but the best chance for
tropical cyclone formation is likely to be by the middle of next
week, when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. This system
is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions
of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight and
Sunday, and then the activity should spread westward across
Hispaniola. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
and a low pressure system centered about 500 miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde islands is poorly organized. This system is moving
slowly westward, and development appears to be unlikely due
to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Forecaster Avila
