NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of Newfoundland, Canada.
The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea, and portions of the Yucatan peninsula. This system is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Sunday or Monday before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Central America through Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa by tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
