NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Northwestern Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have decreased since yesterday in association with a well-defined area of low pressure located just west-northwest of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development, and the chance of this system becoming a short-lived tropical depression appears to be decreasing. The low is expected to move northward towards cooler waters and into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds by tonight, which should limit further development. Regardless of development, periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over Bermuda though this morning. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form midway between Puerto Rico and Bermuda in a couple of days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual subtropical development of this system while it meanders over the southwestern Atlantic through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea by early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development as the low drifts westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Caribbean this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Hagen/Brown
