NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a couple hundred miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands.
1. A trough of low pressure is producing small area of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Guatemala. This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development towards the end of the week when the system is located over the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
2. A tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly hostile over the system, and significant development of this system appears unlikely while the disturbance moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
