NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental con-ditions appear generally favorable for additional development of this system, and a tropical depres-sion is likely to form over the weekend while it moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An elongated trough of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental condi-tions are only marginally conducive for further development of this system, but a tropical depression could still form during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
Another area of low pressure could form in a day or so from an elongated trough of low pressure lo-cated several hundred miles to the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend and into early next week as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
Lesser Antilles and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located just north of Hispaniola is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a broad area of low pressure could form. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Bucci/Hagen
