NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this sys-tem during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while moving generally northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
A trough of low pressure located roughly 1000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and thunder-storms. Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for tropical cyclone formation, and the low is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the north central Atlantic in the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
3. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development this weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
