NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Satellite images, reconnaissance data and surface observations indicate that the remnants of Harvey are close to redeveloping into a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 150 miles west of Merida, Mexico. Advisories will likely be re-initiated at 10 am CDT on this system. The low is forecast to move to the northwest at about 10 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday.
This system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas and Louisiana into early next week. Harvey could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required later today for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and southwestern Louisiana.
Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
2. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching across the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated with a trough of low pressure. Any development of this system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or subtropical development over the weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the western Atlantic.
Regardless of development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Blake
