SHANGHAI/MONTREAL/SAO PAULO--New rules governing Chinese airline startups are fueling hopes at Embraer SA, Bombardier Inc and other regional jet makers for a spike in orders next year, but local competition and doubts about size restrictions still loom as major obstacles.
The new policy is aimed at encouraging fledgling carriers to boost domestic flights serving secondary markets in China rather than focusing exclusively on big cities. The three-month old policy has still not been published in its entirety, leaving the industry guessing on some key details.
But provisions include scaling back access to major hubs and a requirement that new regional carriers operate at least 25 smaller city-hopper jets before graduating to bigger aircraft, according to three industry sources familiar with the policy.
That could translate into Chinese demand for more than 250 new regional jets in the next two years, said one source familiar with a planemaker's outlook, providing a shot in the arm for a new generation of aircraft that has suffered a string of setbacks. Another source familiar with the market called the prospects more limited.
China is seen as anxious to prevent carriers from using niche markets as a back door to the main airline business by grabbing licenses to set up small regional or cargo airlines and then quickly defecting to the more lucrative big-city segment, dominated by Airbus and Boeing. On paper, that should boost demand for regional jets including China's delayed ARJ21, developed by the state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC).
The support for regional aviation in China should also encourage foreign market leaders such as Bombardier and Embraer, according to Yang Yang, a director at COMAC's Shanghai Aircraft Design Research Institute. "This will potentially give them a big market to target," he said.
Regional jet makers have been recovering from development hitches in recent years, only to find that demand has now slowed in their main markets in the United States and Europe as predictions of robust orders from Asia have yet to materialize. A spokesman for Canada's Bombardier said the new policy offers regional airlines "many new opportunities" and Brazil's Embraer called it an "insightful ... new policy to promote regional aviation."
Russia's Sukhoi Civil Aircraft said the company started regular talks this year with potential Chinese customers for its recently introduced Superjet regional aircraft.
Others, such as Japan's Mitsubishi Aircraft, are keeping a lid on expectations, wary of competition from the ARJ21, China's first homegrown passenger jet, which COMAC put into service this year. "We think in general China has a huge potential," said Yugo Fukuhara, a vice president for sales of Mitsubishi Aircraft, a unit of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd, which is developing another newcomer to the regional jet market.
"At the same time, we have competition from the ARJ21, developed by China themselves, and also some political barriers," Fukuhara said, alluding to diplomatic tensions between Japan and its neighbour across the East China Sea.
Analysts say the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) wants to encourage a more diffuse network after most airlines launched in the past three years focused on busier mainline routes, leaving secondary markets underdeveloped. But the regulatory changes in the country may also make it harder for new airlines, as feeder routes are often less profitable and face stiff competition from China's fast expanding high-speed rail network.
China had 57 airlines at the end of 2015, only 12 of which were regional carriers, according to a report from the Shanghai Aircraft Design Research Institute.
