The first cyclone of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane seasons was forming off Yucatan in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico last night (see related story). Tropical Depression One is expected to pass over the Florida peninsula but not exceed storm strength. Vigilance nevertheless remains called for within the potential impact zone.
People sometimes wonder why such disturbances are closely followed while they probably won’t affect the local area. For starters, it’s important to be aware of what’s going on elsewhere. Moreover, despite all the modern forecasting tools weather systems have been known to behave unpredictably.
In November 1999 Lenny passed north of the so-called ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao) but looped back when it reached the Western Caribbean and ended up hitting St. Maarten/St. Martin, practically wrapping around the island for what seemed like forever and leaving much of Philipsburg flooded for days. That was and still is the only recorded case of this behaviour by a named storm within the region.
So, yes, most attention should logically go towards the east, as tropical systems move off the African coast. However, keep in mind that storm threats could also come from the southwest once sea temperatures there have risen.
Besides, although the traditional height of the season is not until August and September, there have been plenty of cyclones during other months even before June 1 or after November 30. The advice of Prime Minister Silveria Jacobs not to get complacent is therefore well-taken.
Stay alert and take whatever precautions are needed promptly so there is no unnecessary stress when it may be too late. Never leave for tomorrow what you can do today and always remember that failing to prepare is preparing to fail.
