NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE DISTURBANCE...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 63.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Forecaster Beven
