NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles east of Barbados. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with an elongated low pressure area located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Development of this system is becoming less likely during the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
