NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Nigel, located over the central sub-tropical Atlantic.
Western Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Florida peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A non-tropical low pressure system is ex-pected to form within this area by early Friday, and this system could acquire some subtropical char-acteristics on Friday or early Saturday while it moves generally northward toward the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of subtropical development, this low is likely to bring gusty winds to gale force, heavy rain, and high surf to portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic United States on Friday and into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual devel-opment of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Reinhart
