NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
- Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas, central and eastern Cuba, and the adjacent Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave. This system is expected to move west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida today, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, across the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development of this system once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
- Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become a little better organized this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. By Friday and over the weekend, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
- Surface observations indicate that a weak low pressure area has formed over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and little additional development is expected before the system moves inland over Texas tonight or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
