NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while moving northwestward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development by Wednesday and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2. East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands have increased a little this morning, but there are not yet any signs of significant organization. The wave is forecast to move westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Some slow development is possible while the wave continues westward, and a tropical depression could form by late this week or this weekend over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Berg
