...FORECAST TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL AMERICA...
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...13.5N 82.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of Honduras from west of Punta Castilla to the Guatemala/Honduras border, including the Bay Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Iota was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 82.0 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua tonight, and will dissipate over central America by Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is forecast to continue to be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches Central America tonight, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 917 mb (27.08 inches) based on Air Force reconnaissance data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua tonight with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are likely occurring on the island of Providencia, with tropical storm conditions expected through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the island of San Andres, with hurricane conditions possible. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late afternoon and in the warning area in Honduras by tonight.
RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday:
Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras.
El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).
This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).
SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Forecaster Blake
