Barely recovering from an unprecedented COVID-19 crisis, the international community is faced with a treacherous war on the European continent. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a threat not just to that country and its people, but the region and ultimately the world.
The Western response has so far been limited to material support and severe economic sanctions. At the same time, Europe’s energy needs partly depend on natural gas from Russia, the global oil price is already going through the roof and financial markets took a blow.
More importantly, should any member state of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) be attacked, things could quickly get very ugly. Since the end of the “Cold War” the alliance’s conventional forces in the area have been reduced mostly to save cost and for political reasons, although in terms of quality of arms, recent military experience and number of troops NATO has far superior firepower compared to the Russian military.
Some suggest the “threshold” to defend territory with nuclear weapons if necessary is relatively low. In other words, if Russia’s current advantage in sheer deployed manpower and military hardware on the ground proves too much, using at least short-range so-called tactical nuclear weapons to stop them cannot be excluded. Escalation to the more medium- and long-range varieties including strategic missiles then becomes a smaller step, with all possible consequences for life on earth.
It is an extremely dangerous “trigger mechanism” deterrent that nobody in his or her right mind would want to see become reality. Everyone involved must therefore keep this doom-scenario firmly engraved in their conscience.
