Hopes among readers that the 2023 hurricane season might be over for all practical purposes following the passage of Philippe were dashed by the forming of Tropical Storm Tammy (see related story). The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten in its evening bulletin put the 20th cyclone of the year at 835 miles southeast and predicted its nearest point would be 20 miles east on Saturday.
While expected to strengthen, Tammy is not forecast to become a hurricane – at least not yet – while going over the local area. Nevertheless, should it pass at such a short distance, storm conditions are almost a forgone conclusion.
That is by no means certain, as Philippe proved. Moreover, the most inclement weather in that case was displaced to the extent that it occurred south of the island, while the centre passed north.
Tammy’s sustained winds were already out 140 miles from the centre; however, mainly to the northeast. That’s a bit of good news if the cyclone indeed does remain east, although the current scenario still seems simply too close for comfort.
At any rate this regards a natural phenomenon, so computer models and forecasts can be faulty, may change frequently and tend to vary. Staying abreast of the storm’s whereabouts and behaviour is therefore essential.
As always, the right approach would be to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Do so in time, because the storm has been relatively fast up to now and might be here before many realise.
Better safe than sorry.
