Dear Editor,
On March 2, 2020, the electorate of Guyana will head to the polls to cast their votes in what has been dubbed the “election of all elections”. Guyana, a country almost the size of Great Britain, is a small state with a population of approximately 780,000 people who are disproportionately divided amongst six ethnic groups.
“The land of many waters” as it is affectionately referred to by its citizens, both on the mainland and in the diaspora, is poised to undergo a transformation unprecedented in the country’s short post-independent history. The enthusiasm and excitement surrounding this impending change in Guyana’s fortunes are due largely in part to the country’s massive discovery of oil in recent times. According to some analysts, the unearthing of huge reserves of “black gold” has positioned Guyana to become the fastest growing economy in the world. And now that the production phase has commenced the country seems to be well on its way to becoming the leading economy globally in terms of growth.
Recently I was asked by an acquaintance of mine who I think is likely to win the March 2 general elections. I replied somewhat jokingly that, “Whoever secures the most votes will be declared the winner and that group will form the next government as mandated by the constitution.”
Whichever outfit wins the contest on March 02 will undoubtedly be the initiators of the country’s much anticipated transformation. They will be the group with the authority and power to control and manage the affairs of the country going forward . The suitability of this group to execute the responsibilities of government will be determined and decided by the express wish of the electorate in the coming days, and this is the norm in any functioning democracy, the people decide for varying reasons who they are desirous of governing them.
Historically though and in Guyana’s case voting has been and continues to be conspicuously racially polarised with the majority of eligible voters (most of whom are from the two most populous ethnic groups, namely Indo and Afro Guyanese) throwing their support behind the party that they perceive to represent their interest and most importantly is largely of the same ethnic background as theirs. Voting is conducted mainly along ethnic lines with the majority of Indo Guyanese supporting the opposition PPP and likewise the greater number of Afro Guyanese backing the PNC/R, the largest party of the ruling APNU coalition.
This doesn’t necessarily imply that either or both of these ethnic groups are voting in a racially discriminatory fashion or are displaying racist attitudes. This pattern could very well be interpreted as an individual’s electoral preference. What perpetuates this loyalty continues to be the subject of countless social science research, works of fiction and poetry.
The political base and grass-root support for the two major political parties has not changed noticeably over the previous decades. While the demography of Guyana’s population has changed over the last two decades brought on by the forces of emigration, deaths, births, education, etcetera, this nevertheless has not altered the trend of voting significantly. Voter indoctrination allegedly still seems to be a major influence in determining one’s support for either of the two major parties. However, this apparent sorry state of affairs should not be construed as an indictment of the electorate, as one that lacks cognitive skills and abilities to critically examine issues in order to make rational choices. Guyana has one of the highest literacy levels in that part of the hemisphere and can boast of having a fairly educated workforce, this undeniably will instantly invalidate any negative perception arising from the above.
However, it is my considered view that what seems to account for this unquestioning loyalty for either of the two major political parties is an unfailing and conscious choice to discard the use of reason and merit as a quality of judgement in making decisions during election time. The underutilisation of the first, a mental resource, and a refusal to employ the second are somewhat overpowered by other forces which provide a greater sense of security and calm in the midst of a lot of tension which is evident leading up to elections. This is understandably so in the context of Guyana as years of negative and self-serving conditioning of its citizens on race relations has helped to produce a political climate filled with distrust, fear and insecurities. Trusting the “otherness” of others is one of the challenges facing Guyana in its post-colonial historical experience.
So, a large percentage of voters cloaked in skepticism, worry and uncertainty will take to the polls on March 2 casting their votes as they usually do for whoever they judge will assuage those lingering feelings. And any comparative analysis done post-March 2 between the 2015 and 2020 elections isn’t likely to show huge variances in terms of the votes secured by the two major parties from the two most populous ethnic groups, as both parties are likely to retain their core supporters and political base. Party loyalists from the two big parties account for the lion’s share of Guyana’s electorate and are predictable voters. However, it’s the other categories of voters considered the “swingers” that are likely to upset the balance of power giving either of the two majors the critical support necessary to gain the parliamentary majority.
The above-noted categories of voters are the rational, disgruntled voters and the Amerindian or indigenous voters. The former were once traditional supporters of the PPP and PNC/R but broke ranks and are now either independent or are in support of the AFC – a member of the ruling coalition and a party whose leadership constitutes members who were once officials and affiliates of both the PPP and PNC/R.
The AFC appeals to the splinters or breakaways from the two major parties and has seen consistent results at the last two polls providing the critical seats that were needed for the coalition to enjoy a parliamentary majority in the last elections. There have been some disagreements between the rank and file of the AFC in recent times resulting from several internal matters, most notably the falling-out with one of its members who voted with the opposition setting in motion the successful passing of a no-confidence motion against the present government. Whether the AFC will be able to repeat its 2015 elections performance at the upcoming polls in light of this remains to be seen.
The remainder of voters from the first category noted above have not sworn allegiance to the AFC or any other party and are the independent rational voters who are guided by critical thinking and rational thought, they weigh the personal costs and benefits of their intended choice before making a decision. They look at the pros and cons, aligning their interests with that of the policies of the party of their choosing. They will lend their support in and as far as the benefits of their alignment exceed that of its costs.
Most of the rational, informed debates and nonpartisan discussions on the issues pressing Guyana are penned and verbalised by this group. They will support the group they are confident will manage the resources of the country in a reasonable manner. They have been analysing and assessing potential candidates over a period of time on a wide range of issues, in the process forming informed opinions on their suitability.
The Indigenous or Amerindian voters have matters and concerns that are unique to the preservation of their identity, culture and their sense of entitlement for being the first settlers of Guyana. They are a part of the national debate and an entire ministry has been customised to attend to their affairs, they are a force to be reckoned with. The extent to which the incumbent government or its predecessor has been able to resolve and progress on matters dear to them will be reflected by the level of support each receives on election day.
Come March 2, 2020, the victors will have become victorious by a slim margin. Nevertheless, they will form the next government tasked with sensibly managing in particular the proceeds from Guyana’s new-found resource. They ought to be held accountable and should continue to enjoy the support of the nation as long as they are transparent in their administration of the affairs of that beautiful country.
Orlando Patterson
