...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EX-PECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.7N 82.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteor-ological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located by Air Force Reserve recon-naissance aircraft near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.9 West. The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.
Data from the Air Force Reserve aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible, if the system remains over water.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area be-ginning later today.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide lev-els along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Forecaster Kelly
