BULLETIN
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017
...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...13.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning For Martinique.
The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.
The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.
The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move through the Southeast Caribbean islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before reaching the islands.
If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
