NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.9N 82.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, condi-tions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteor-ological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion should continue through today, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is fore-cast during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps signifi-cant, along with the potential of mudslides.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning later today.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide lev-els along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Forecaster Kelly
