BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.5N 92.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira to a Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 92.8 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected is expected tonight and Wednesday, and the system is likely to
approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are al-so possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Wednesday.
Forecaster Berg
