NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. Southwestern Atlantic:
A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from near Bermuda southward over the western Atlantic for several hundred miles is associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along the northern portion of the trough axis later today, but environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive, and any development should be slow to occur. By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become even less favorable for development, and the low is expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Brown
