NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
- Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The low is forecast to approach the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough surf over those areas. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Forecaster Beven
