NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands con-tinues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear con-ducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical At-lantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased some, but remain disorganized, in association with an area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable, surface pressures have been falling near the system, and it has a short window to develop further over the next day or so. However, by Wednesday morning the system is forecast to merge with a developing frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Re-serve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. Re-gardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast to produce gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday, and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast by the latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Papin
