NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a small area of low pressure. Nearby dry air is forecast to prevent additional significant development of the system as it begins to drift slowly westward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a frontal boundary over the central subtropical Atlantic later today. This non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward across the central sub-tropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Kelly
