NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located more than 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
- A well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave continues to move quickly westward across the central Caribbean Sea. Although the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation center, ship observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are occurring in the northern portion of wave to the southeast of Jamaica, which will spread near or just south of Jamaica later this morning and into this afternoon. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form during the next day or so before the system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
- A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
