NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
- A surface trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend from the northwestern and central Bahamas eastward a few hundred miles over the western Atlantic. This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
- Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
- A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
- Another large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is beginning to move off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
