NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure area centered about 450 miles east-northeast of Bermuda have become better organized during the past several hours. The low has not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics. However, if current trends continue advisories could be initiated on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda. Subsequently, the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
