NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
West-Central Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the west-central Caribbean Sea have become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or two while the low moves northeastward toward Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the Greater Antilles through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure between southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas is associated with a frontal boundary. Development of this system into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely. However, gusty winds and heavy rains are still possible across portions of the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas during the next day or so while the low moves quickly northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Berg
