NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
- A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the south-central Gulf of Mexico, possibly before the system reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
- Another tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles is also producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
