By Bonnie Benesh, Think to Do Institute
No country has been spared the impact of COVID-19. Some face a particularly difficult set of challenges. That is because before the pandemic arrived, they have been already struggling, beset by poor outcomes such as poor economic growth, high unemployment, brain drain, poor social cohesion, and poverty, amongst others. Other stressors and disruptive developments such as aging populations, and lack of preparedness to deal with the effects the 4IR and climate change added to their struggle. And now, these factors leave them especially ill-equipped to deal with the COVID-19 crisis. Curacao appears to be one of these countries.
Evidence of such can also be found in the island action plan, which is part of the agreement reached with Holland for budget and capacity support. What these countries need in order to withstand a pandemic, or any other major crises for that matter, is precisely what fragile states lack: a government with the institutional capacity.
Institutional capacity to first of all devise and deliver on a comprehensive plan of action. Such a plan allows for implementation of rules and their enforcement to contain the spread of the disease, and allows for building back better. Such plans also address the deficiencies in the various national institutions and systems that allow for a country to bounce back, and come out of this ordeal stronger. That is what resiliency is all about.
The above, that is lack of state capacity, is immediately evident in many countries and in many domains. But one capacity that stands out in many countries is that of public health, evidenced by notable shortages in hospital beds to deal not only with the COVID-19 health fall-out, but also with regular healthcare demand.
An effective response to this or any crisis requires trust in government. In addition to the scarce capacity, governments in many fragile states may also lack legitimacy-trust of the people. In countries which, as indicated earlier, already had challenges before the pandemic, their people may have a problem with following even a government that proves capable of leading. When there is no trust, the compliance to new rules is challenged.
Another factor related to the private sector. A strong private sector is also a necessary component of effective, resilient states. People must be able to work to support their families, and governments must generate tax revenues to help those who cannot. Yet fragile states typically lack the formal economy through which to meet these needs.
The economic impact of the pandemic will surely fall harder on fragile states, not just as a result of internal lockdowns, but because of what is happening overseas, namely the economic fall-out from the drop in demand. In the case of Curaçao, trade with our main partners has declined. Fiscal deficits are ballooning. Because fragile states, and again Curaçao is no exception, rely on imports for much of their food, there is now increasing indications of higher prices because of disruptions in international supply chains.
The level of fragility of a nation is the sum of the many factors mentioned above and some not mentioned. With resiliency being an ideal state, measuring fragility is valuable. If we want to tackle the resiliency of our nation in a holistic and decisive manner, we must first define the parameters of fragility for our nation, and measure such. For it is only on this basis that we can come up with policy measures to address the many aspects of fragility, and thereby move into the direction of a more resilient nation.
Providing insights into what makes us a more resilient nation is precisely the objective of Think to Do Institute, which currently is also researching the fragility of our nation by adapting the fragile states index of the Fund for Peace methodology. The Fragile States Index is an annual assessment of 178 countries based on a measurement of the social, economic, and political pressures that each country faces. What sets countries apart is their resilience, or their ability to withstand shocks, and their capacity to respond effectively to those pressures. Furthermore, in a globalized and interconnected world, fragility, wherever it may be, is everybody’s problem. Fragility ultimately affects everyone, one way or another.
Think to Do Institute is an independent, apolitical think tank located in Curaçao, Dutch Caribbean. The T2DI has as its purpose to help Curaçao become a more resilient society by producing research that is based on best practice, and which delivers practical solutions to the barriers that hold the community back from becoming more resilient.
Research evidence shows that Resilient Societies are created by attention to people, to organizations, to place, and to knowledge. Resilient Societies design, redesign organizations, institutions and systems to better absorb disruption, operate under a wide variety of conditions, and shift more fluently from one circumstance to the next. For more information about Think to DO Institute, visit the website: www.thinktodoinstitute.com.
