Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.3N 84.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Five was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 84.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Saturday morning.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by early Saturday, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday.
Forecaster Pasch
