Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
700 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.7N 87.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 87.2 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible before Gamma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula today. After landfall, some weakening is expected.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.
A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday.
