NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.8N 91.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico
Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Interests there and along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located over southern Mexico near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 91.2 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this motion should continue this morning. A turn toward the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico today and tonight. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristobal is expected to weaken to a depression later this morning. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, primarily over water to the northwest of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday:
Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.
Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches.
Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area.
