Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...22.5N 94.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for portions of Florida late today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 94.0 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major flooding possible.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and possible in the watch area on Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Minor coastal flooding could also occur along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from large swells. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Forecaster Blake
